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ReGen Again

             Andrew C. Wilson of Belfast, Northern Ireland, has upped his stake in ReGen Therapeutics plc to 13%. The highly speculative small cap capital-hungry start-up firm is developing and testing two drugs, Zolpidem, an old drug which seems to have benefits when given to patients suffering from non-primary brain dormancy; and colostrinin, extracts from mammalian colostrin, a fluid which forms in cows before their milk comes in after they have calved; it also forms in human new mothers.

    

Ascendas on Ascendancy

Ascendas (ACNDF.PK, AiTrust, or AINT.SI) is a Singapore-listed real estate investment trust building and operating office and industrial properties in India. It mostly builds office towers but does a small amount of commercial property as well, like shopping malls for the people working in the towers.

 
     Again it helps to know where they are at. Currently the sites are in Bangalore, India’s IT capital, Hyderabad, and Chennai (formerly Madras). It is moving into Coimbatore, Pune (formerly Poona), and Gurgaon. Again these are famous old rail centers, because investment follows the train.
 
     Do not imagine that Ascendas’ tenants are merely the Indian IT companies. To be sure, it did a sale-leaseback deal for Tata Consulting Services this summer which we reported on, freeing up cash for the Indian IT firm to help it survive the crisis. Unlike Tata, ACNDF was able to fund the building at 70 basis points over the swap offer rate, so that its lease will produce excellent profits.
 
      Some 63% of the REIT’s lets are to IT companies mainly because that is where the money is in India. But most of its tenants are global companies: GM, Pfizer, Merrill Lynch, Applied Materials, Cognizant. The top 10 lets account for only 29% of total area leased by Ascendas, and non accounts for more than 4% of the total. That spreads the risk even though I worry about GM.
 
     Because its investors are in Singapore, Ascendas has hedged its repatriation flows from rupees to Singapore dollars through to the hend of H1 2009 (a year from now more or less). It produced an income per unit of S1.82 cents. That was up 23% from last year’s Q2, and up sequentially by 10%. At end Sept., NAV was S$750 mn or 99 cents (Singapore)/sh.
 
     Based on its H1 distribution, it pays off to the tune of 16.2% as of the price at which it entered the model portfolio. So the obvious question to ask is can they keep it up?
 
     Having been rude about Citi's Asia hands, I must admit they are right about Ascendas which they call a buy with an attractive 15.9% yield (they wrote their piece after we had already bought in. We paid 28 cents U.S. per share and they are writing with the share 33 U.S. cents.) Citi wrote:
 
     “In current volatile times, we see aiTrust as a defensive Indian property play. While stock is down 42%, it's outperformed Indian property stocks by 52% over last 3 months. Its attractive yield of 15.9% for FY09E is ahead of peers and good support. We reiterate Buy (1M).”
 
     (1M means best buy, moderate risk. Citi lowered its target price to S$0.79 citing currencyy risks despite the hedging we reported above. This may be because Citi thinks the costs of hedging beyond Sept. 2009 will go up.)
 
     For Q2, Citi analysts noted “a one-time income of S$2.7m from extra power supply. Net property income was up 2% largely due to higher operating, and utility costs given a larger portfolio” It added: “we expect [a] stronger 2H” from higher areas available for lets.
 
     Citi cited some risks: like a depreciating rupee in S$ (and US$) and any global slowdown in IT demand feeding into closing offices or bankruptcies. I think this is pretty remote. But obviously, if GM goes bust, this will have an impact.

      Note: Results and DPU for Q1 and Q2 FY 2007-8 were reported together after the listing of Ascendas, at S$ 2.95 cents. Had the DPU been equal and hence 1.475 Singapore cents for each quarter, 2Q FY 08/09 would have been 23% higher.

     *Apologies. For some reason I decided last week that the regulator from which Galapagos N.V. gets approvals is called the Federal Health Agency. Of course I meant the Food & Drug Administration, which moreover has different initials.

Guthrie and Galapagos

 

    Galapagos NV (Euronext: GLPG; Amsterdam: GLPGA; GLPYY.PK or GLPGF.PK) and CHDI Foundation, Inc., a non-profit Los Angelese organization seeking treatments for Huntington’s disease (HD or Huntington's chorea, which killed Woody Guthrie), announced today new agreements to try to develop novel assays for drug discovery to evaluate therapeutic compounds with potential for treating the disease. Total value of the contracts for Galapagos is $1 mn (€0.8 mn) over 18 months.

     Galapagos’ service division, BioFocus DPI, will develop a high-throughput screening assay in mouse neurons to help identify compounds that prevent the neuronal dysfunction associated with HD. BioFocus will also use its profiling and assay development expertise to evaluate known compounds which inhibit certain enzymes with key roles in HD. These new programs continue the collaboration started just over two years ago.

     Said Onno van de Stolpe, CEO of Galapagos, "Our service division continues to build on its reputation for high quality drug discovery."

       Huntington's is a hereditary disease caused by a mutation in the huntington gene. Each child of a parent with the gene mutation has a 50:50 chance of inheriting the mutation. Those carrying the mutation suffer failure and death of brain cells leading to cognitive and physical impairments that, as the disease progresses, significantly disable HD patients and ultimately cause their death. Symptoms of Huntington's disease generally develop in midlife and become progressively more debilitating. They can also develop in infancy or old age. Once overt symptoms appear, patients live for about 15 to 20 years. One person in 10,000 is believed to carry the mutation in the huntington gene. There is currently no way to delay the onset of symptoms or slow the progression of HD.

      Galapagos, a recommended stock, is a drug discovery company with pre-clinical programs in bone and joint diseases and bone metastasis.

 

 

 

     

      CHDI is a non-profit organization whose mission is to rapidly discover and develop drugs that delay or slow Huntington's disease. CHDI supports an international network of research laboratories from academia and industry. As a collaborative enabler, CHDI seeks to bring partners together to identify critical scientific issues and move drug candidates to clinical evaluation quickly. www.chdifoundation.org.

Preparing for decline

 

     Well-run companies are gearing down for the not-so-brave new world we are moving toward.

     *Citicorp's Eddie Lau reported on a reduced outlook for Kingboard of Hong Kong after he cut the estimate for '08-'10 sharply. Yet the stock remains a buy, trading at HK$13 with his target of HK$24. The yield is 9.3% to boot. But the earlier target was HK$ 50.7.

     Here is the logic. While laminates business will fall (clever of Kingboard to have sold a chunk of that line to the market) its PCB lines will continue to show growth.

     Mr. Lau expects operating margins next year to fall to 14.7% vs earlier estimates of 16.6% (already reduced a bit in his interim report). This is still well ahead of the trough in 2003 when the level fell to 13.7%.

     The company has HK$ 4.5 bn in cash. The capex will be cut to the range of HK$1.5-2 bn vs earlier estimates of 3.5-4 bn. So the cash will last longer. Moreover, he expects a share buyback.

     *Finnish Metso Oy, the leading maker of paper and mining machines, announced a review of acquisition and cap ex plans because of a drop in demand for its products. It also announced a revised stock option program for its brass. 

      CEO Jorma Floranta said "We are prepared to move quickly when needed" in announcing the review of spending plans. It has begun laying off some paper equipment workers in Finland as sales slowed. In Dec. it will create a new energy and environment division. While MXCYY.PK expects slackening demand for papermaking machines, it expects mining machinery sales to be flat but not down. Paper and pulp machiner demand is down in China, one of its largest markets after the U.S. and Finland.

     Its prep for a downturn encouraged the market and the stock rose some; but it is off 75% in Euros this year, and even more off in dollars.

     Metso's Q3 net rose 3.2% to euros 97 mn or 64 euro cents/sh, about $121 mn. It failed to meet analyst estimates reported by Bloomberg. Sales rose 5.2% to euros 1.53 bn.

     The orderbook is ambiguous, including a bunch of deals which in fact have been delayed in Brazil and China. So take that 56% reported gain to euros 2.24 bn with a healthy dose of salt.  

      *Galapagos NV (GLPGY.PK) announed that trials in 200 patients of its Nanocort drug against rheumatoid arthritis demonstrated a decline in symptoms as well as safety. This was the fining of a gold-standard phase 1-2 trial in Nijmegen, Holland. GLPGY is Belgian. The results will be presented today at an American College of Rheumatology Meeting in San Francisco as a late-breaking 'poster'. 

 

Hard landing; and soft test news

          *Beijing Capital International Airport Co. fell sharply today in Hong Kong and I tried to find out more regarding the airport operator at my Chinese lunch with people from over the border in Shenzhen.

    It appears that a rumor was floated by China Times, a newspaper that BJCHF.PK is being stiffed by Chinese airlines which are hurting with high interest rates and (until very recently) high prices for aviation fuel, coupled with lower levels of travel post-Olympics.

    The newspaper said that they owe the lovely Beijing airport 800 mn yuan, a out $117 mn. This was denied by Sec. Shu Yong of the airport, who, while not giving out a figure for how much the airlines owe, said that airlines always delay paying landing and takeoff fees, and the amount owed has not gone up.

    Shu also denied that Beijing Capital was relying on bank loans as  the newspaper reported. In fact there have so far been no bank loans at all but if the airport buys the new terminal from the city, there may well be loans to finance the deal. So far, however, it awaits regulatory approval.

    Despite the denials, the Hong Kong share price of BJCHF fell 17%. It is now more than half off from the 94 cents (US) which we paid. This level seems to over compensate for any likely loss over the next year. The costs of the new terminal, a prestige Olympic project, were scary, but Beijing is not about to close down. So there will still be planes landing and taking off.

     Don't parachute out.

     *Frustratingly, Stallergenes just announced that the FDA has given its approval to new Phase III U.S. adult trials of its Oralaire sublingual allergy desensitizing product against grasses. This is a major piece of news for the French maker of allergenes. The product combines 5 grass allergens in a single oral desensitizing program now being tested.

     What is frustrating is that the French company failed to put out a release in English. It is partnering in the U.S. trials with Quintiles Transnational Corp., a U.S. firm which specializes in overcoming regulatory hurdles, and the approvals came from the Federal Health Administration (FHA) which issued an IND. Both those entities operate in English. Couldn't Stallergenes find an anglophone in Paris to translate the big news? What is the matter with them? They need to get sublingual medications to get their tongues (langues) around English.

     Perhaps because of the francophone lunacy, despite news of the breakthrough to the U.S., the share price of the share fell in the market debacle of Monday by nearly 10% to euro 31.34. (I am using the Paris quote for 006567, not the Euronext-NYSE one).

     In 2009, we will now have 4 clinical trial results for its sublingual desensitizing allergen programs. which will mark a new era for Stallergenes: grasses en Etats-Unis; another long-term trial of grasses in Europe; acarians (dust mites and maybe, this Hallowe'en week, also spiders); and one for birch trees.  

      Stallergenes expects to try to line up a strategic partner here next year to launch these products on the U.S. market. I cannot believe they do not want a partner who speaks English.

       Separately Stallergenes confirmed its earlier expectation levels for growth in 2008 and 2009. In this market!

       Both stocks are buys now if you have cash around.



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