| ReGen Again |
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Andrew
C. Wilson of Belfast, Northern Ireland, has upped his stake in ReGen Therapeutics plc
to 13%. The highly speculative small cap capital-hungry start-up firm is developing and testing two
drugs, Zolpidem, an old drug which seems to have benefits when given to patients suffering from non-primary
brain dormancy; and colostrinin, extracts from mammalian colostrin, a fluid which forms in cows before
their milk comes in after they have calved; it also forms in human new mothers.
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| Ascendas on Ascendancy |
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Ascendas (ACNDF.PK,
AiTrust, or AINT.SI) is a Singapore-listed real estate investment trust building and operating office
and industrial properties in India. It mostly builds office towers but does a small amount of commercial
property as well, like shopping malls for the people working in the towers.
Again it helps to know where they are at. Currently the sites are in Bangalore, India’s IT capital,
Hyderabad, and Chennai (formerly Madras). It is moving into Coimbatore, Pune (formerly Poona), and Gurgaon.
Again these are famous old rail centers, because investment follows the train.
Do not imagine that Ascendas’ tenants are merely the Indian IT companies. To be sure, it did a sale-leaseback
deal for Tata Consulting Services this summer which we reported on, freeing up cash for the Indian
IT firm to help it survive the crisis. Unlike Tata, ACNDF was able to fund the building at 70 basis points
over the swap offer rate, so that its lease will produce excellent profits.
Some 63% of the REIT’s lets are to IT companies mainly because that is where the money is in India.
But most of its tenants are global companies: GM, Pfizer, Merrill Lynch,
Applied Materials, Cognizant.
The top 10 lets account for only 29% of total area leased by Ascendas, and non accounts for more than
4% of the total. That spreads the risk even though I worry about GM.
Because its investors are in Singapore, Ascendas has hedged its repatriation flows from rupees to
Singapore dollars through to the hend of H1 2009 (a year from now more or less). It produced an income
per unit of S1.82 cents. That was up 23% from last year’s Q2, and up sequentially by 10%. At end
Sept., NAV was S$750 mn or 99 cents (Singapore)/sh.
Based on its H1 distribution, it pays off to the tune of 16.2% as of the price at which it entered the
model portfolio. So the obvious question to ask is can they keep it up?
Having been rude about Citi's Asia hands, I must admit they are right about Ascendas which they
call a buy with an attractive 15.9% yield (they wrote their piece after we had already bought in. We paid
28 cents U.S. per share and they are writing with the share 33 U.S. cents.) Citi wrote:
“In current
volatile times, we see aiTrust as a defensive Indian property play. While stock is down 42%, it's outperformed
Indian property stocks by 52% over last 3 months. Its attractive yield of 15.9% for FY09E is ahead of
peers and good support. We reiterate Buy (1M).”
(1M means best buy, moderate risk. Citi lowered its target price to S$0.79 citing currencyy risks despite
the hedging we reported above. This may be because Citi thinks the costs of hedging beyond Sept. 2009
will go up.)
For Q2, Citi analysts noted “a one-time income of S$2.7m from extra power supply. Net property income
was up 2% largely due to higher operating, and utility costs given a larger portfolio” It added:
“we expect [a] stronger 2H” from higher areas available for lets.
Citi cited some risks: like a depreciating rupee in S$ (and US$) and any global slowdown in IT demand
feeding into closing offices or bankruptcies. I think this is pretty remote. But obviously, if GM goes
bust, this will have an impact.
Note: Results and DPU for Q1 and Q2
FY 2007-8 were reported together after the listing of Ascendas, at S$ 2.95 cents. Had the DPU been equal
and hence 1.475 Singapore cents for each quarter, 2Q FY 08/09 would have been 23% higher.
*Apologies. For some reason I decided
last week that the regulator from which Galapagos N.V. gets approvals is called the Federal
Health Agency. Of course I meant the Food & Drug Administration, which moreover has different initials.
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| Guthrie and Galapagos |
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Galapagos NV (Euronext:
GLPG; Amsterdam: GLPGA; GLPYY.PK or GLPGF.PK) and CHDI Foundation, Inc., a non-profit Los Angelese organization
seeking treatments for Huntington’s disease (HD or Huntington's chorea, which killed Woody Guthrie),
announced today new agreements to try to develop novel assays for drug discovery to evaluate
therapeutic compounds with potential for treating the disease. Total value of the contracts for Galapagos
is $1 mn (€0.8 mn) over 18 months.
Galapagos’ service division, BioFocus
DPI, will develop a high-throughput screening assay in mouse neurons to help identify compounds that prevent
the neuronal dysfunction associated with HD. BioFocus will also use its profiling and assay
development expertise to evaluate known compounds which inhibit certain enzymes with key roles in HD.
These new programs continue the collaboration started just over two years ago.
Said Onno van de Stolpe,
CEO of Galapagos, "Our service division continues to build on its reputation for high quality drug
discovery."
Huntington's is
a hereditary disease caused by a mutation in the huntington gene. Each child of a parent with the
gene mutation has a 50:50 chance of inheriting the mutation. Those carrying the mutation suffer failure
and death of brain cells leading to cognitive and physical impairments that, as the disease progresses,
significantly disable HD patients and ultimately cause their death. Symptoms of Huntington's
disease generally develop in midlife and become progressively more debilitating. They can also develop
in infancy or old age. Once overt symptoms appear, patients live for about 15 to 20 years. One person
in 10,000 is believed to carry the mutation in the huntington gene. There is currently no way to
delay the onset of symptoms or slow the progression of HD.
Galapagos, a recommended stock, is a drug discovery
company with pre-clinical programs in bone and joint diseases and bone metastasis.
CHDI is a non-profit
organization whose mission is to rapidly discover and develop drugs that delay or slow Huntington's
disease. CHDI supports an international network of research laboratories from academia and industry. As
a collaborative enabler, CHDI seeks to bring partners together to identify critical scientific issues
and move drug candidates to clinical evaluation quickly. www.chdifoundation.org.
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| Preparing for decline |
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Well-run companies are gearing down for
the not-so-brave new world we are moving toward.
*Citicorp's Eddie Lau reported
on a reduced outlook for Kingboard of Hong Kong after he cut the estimate for '08-'10
sharply. Yet the stock remains a buy, trading at HK$13 with his target of HK$24. The yield is 9.3% to
boot. But the earlier target was HK$ 50.7.
Here is the logic. While laminates business
will fall (clever of Kingboard to have sold a chunk of that line to the market) its PCB lines will continue
to show growth.
Mr. Lau expects operating margins next year
to fall to 14.7% vs earlier estimates of 16.6% (already reduced a bit in his interim report). This is
still well ahead of the trough in 2003 when the level fell to 13.7%.
The company has HK$ 4.5 bn in cash. The
capex will be cut to the range of HK$1.5-2 bn vs earlier estimates of 3.5-4 bn. So the cash will last
longer. Moreover, he expects a share buyback.
*Finnish Metso Oy, the
leading maker of paper and mining machines, announced a review of acquisition and cap ex
plans because of a drop in demand for its products. It also announced a revised stock option
program for its brass.
CEO Jorma Floranta said "We are
prepared to move quickly when needed" in announcing the review of spending plans. It has begun laying
off some paper equipment workers in Finland as sales slowed. In Dec. it will create a new energy and environment
division. While MXCYY.PK expects slackening demand for papermaking machines, it expects mining machinery
sales to be flat but not down. Paper and pulp machiner demand is down in China, one of its largest markets
after the U.S. and Finland.
Its prep for a downturn encouraged the market
and the stock rose some; but it is off 75% in Euros this year, and even more off in dollars.
Metso's Q3 net rose 3.2% to euros 97 mn
or 64 euro cents/sh, about $121 mn. It failed to meet analyst estimates reported by Bloomberg. Sales rose
5.2% to euros 1.53 bn.
The orderbook is ambiguous, including
a bunch of deals which in fact have been delayed in Brazil and China. So take that 56% reported gain to
euros 2.24 bn with a healthy dose of salt.
*Galapagos NV (GLPGY.PK)
announed that trials in 200 patients of its Nanocort drug against rheumatoid arthritis demonstrated a
decline in symptoms as well as safety. This was the fining of a gold-standard phase 1-2 trial in Nijmegen,
Holland. GLPGY is Belgian. The results will be presented today at an American College of Rheumatology
Meeting in San Francisco as a late-breaking 'poster'.
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| Hard landing; and soft test news |
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*Beijing
Capital International Airport Co. fell sharply today
in Hong Kong and I tried to find out more regarding the airport operator at my Chinese lunch with
people from over the border in Shenzhen.
It appears that a rumor was floated by China
Times, a newspaper that BJCHF.PK is being stiffed by Chinese airlines which are hurting with high
interest rates and (until very recently) high prices for aviation fuel, coupled with lower levels of travel
post-Olympics.
The newspaper said that they owe the lovely Beijing
airport 800 mn yuan, a out $117 mn. This was denied by Sec. Shu Yong of the airport, who, while not giving
out a figure for how much the airlines owe, said that airlines always delay paying landing and takeoff
fees, and the amount owed has not gone up.
Shu also denied that Beijing Capital was
relying on bank loans as the newspaper reported. In fact there have so far been no bank loans at
all but if the airport buys the new terminal from the city, there may well be loans to finance the deal.
So far, however, it awaits regulatory approval.
Despite the denials, the Hong Kong share
price of BJCHF fell 17%. It is now more than half off from the 94 cents (US) which we paid. This level
seems to over compensate for any likely loss over the next year. The costs of the new terminal, a prestige
Olympic project, were scary, but Beijing is not about to close down. So there will still be planes
landing and taking off.
Don't parachute out.
*Frustratingly, Stallergenes
just announced that the FDA has given its approval to new Phase III U.S. adult trials of its Oralaire
sublingual allergy desensitizing product against grasses. This is a major piece of news for the French
maker of allergenes. The product combines 5 grass allergens in a single oral desensitizing program now
being tested.
What is frustrating is that the French company
failed to put out a release in English. It is partnering in the U.S. trials with Quintiles Transnational
Corp., a U.S. firm which specializes in overcoming regulatory hurdles, and the approvals came from
the Federal Health Administration (FHA) which issued an IND. Both those entities operate in English.
Couldn't Stallergenes find an anglophone in Paris to translate the big news? What is the matter with
them? They need to get sublingual medications to get their tongues (langues) around English.
Perhaps because of the francophone lunacy,
despite news of the breakthrough to the U.S., the share price of the share fell in the market debacle
of Monday by nearly 10% to euro 31.34. (I am using the Paris quote for 006567, not the Euronext-NYSE one).
In 2009, we will now have 4 clinical trial
results for its sublingual desensitizing allergen programs. which will mark a new era for Stallergenes:
grasses en Etats-Unis; another long-term trial of grasses in Europe; acarians (dust mites and maybe, this
Hallowe'en week, also spiders); and one for birch trees.
Stallergenes expects to try to
line up a strategic partner here next year to launch these products on the U.S. market. I cannot believe
they do not want a partner who speaks English.
Separately Stallergenes
confirmed its earlier expectation levels for growth in 2008 and 2009. In this market!
Both stocks are buys now if
you have cash around.
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